Research is an important part of how SCIS supports and serves our members’ needs.
From regular research, such as our Annual Census and Exam Results, to projects such as the Economic Impact Report, SCIS research and statistics supports everything we do.
Each SCIS member school must complete an annual census form by the end of September each year. SCIS uses the information collected to produce a series of statistics to support the independent school sector in Scotland.
In 2025, the survey revealed that:
- The number of pupils attending independent schools in Scotland has dropped by almost 3,000 since the introduction of VAT on school fees.
- In the annual census 2023, before the UK Labour Government imposed the education tax, the number was 28,876. This fell to 27,781 in 2024 and fell again at the start of this school year to 25,919.
- This represents a fall of 2,957 pupils, equivalent to a reduction of 10% in SCIS school rolls since the UK Government decided to tax education.
- A number of independent schools in Scotland are reporting drops of more than 20 per cent in their pupil numbers since VAT was imposed.
- The economic impact report by BiGGAR Economics found that VAT on school fees would cost the state money in Scotland, at the point the independent sector shrinks by 13 per cent or more. If the downward trend in pupil numbers seen in the last two years continues, VAT on fees will cost the state sector money by next academic year (2026/27).
- The reductions in pupil numbers have been most pronounced in the key school entry points. The number of pupils joining independent schools at age 5 has dropped by 13.3% and the percentage drop at S1 is 14.6% compared to 2023.
- The cost to the state sector of educating the number of pupils who have left independent schools or have been prevented from joining the sector, is already more than £20 million (£24,149,100) based on the IFS estimate of £10,100 average cost of educating a pupil in Scotland.
- The biggest percentage drop has been seen in Edinburgh with a reduction of 10.3% in school pupil numbers since 2023. This is closely followed by schools in Glasgow and the west which saw a 10.2% drop in pupil numbers. Aberdeen has seen a 6.7% reduction and there has been a reduction of 8.7% in Perthshire.
Following this year's Annual Census, the Chief Executive of SCIS, Lorraine Davidson said: “We warned the UK Government that imposing VAT on fees would damage state education in Scotland, and harm the economy and unfortunately we have been proved correct. The SCIS annual census shows thousands of extra pupils are now being educated at the taxpayers’ expense, and many young people can’t find a state school place in their local area due to the pressure this is causing on the state system.
It’s time for the UK Government to admit it got its sums badly wrong and reverse this vindictive and flawed policy, which far from raising money for state schools, is on course to leave taxpayers footing the bill for educating thousands more pupils.
Before the education tax was imposed, Scottish independent schools were worth more than half a billion pounds to the Scottish economy, employed almost 12,000 people and benefited 120,000 members of the public through partnerships.
Despite this assault on our sector, SCIS schools will continue delivering high quality education and make fees as affordable as possible. Our schools make a positive contribution to Scottish education and to communities throughout Scotland. We will not allow this policy to deter us from our mission to build on that work. We are calling on all political parties to consider how they can work with independent education in Scotland to build partnerships with the state sector from which 100 per cent of young people can benefit.”
