The latest independent report commissioned by the Scottish Council of Independent Schools sets out in stark terms the harm VAT on school fees has caused for Scottish education, the economy, and our schools.
Following the UK Government’s decision to implement the education tax there has been:
- A decline of 9% in pupil numbers
- decline of 13% at Junior 1
- decline of 15% at Senior 1
- In 2026/27 it is expected that the amount of VAT collected will be less than the impact on the state sector giving a net loss of £16m to the public finances
- Assuming this pattern continues, by 2039 pupil numbers could be 34% lower than compared to the pre-VAT levels and compared to the projected decline of pupils in state schools of 12.5%.
- By 2038, the net loss to the public finances is expected to be £181 million.
- If our pupil numbers hadn’t reduced because of VAT, our sector would now be worth £727 m (£58m higher) and it would support 11,510 jobs (900 additional)
- If this level of decline is not arrested, the economic impact of our schools is projected to drop to £441 million by 2039 with staff numbers down to 6,980 – a fall of £227 m and 3,610 jobs lost.
However, it also makes clear that our sector continues to make a significant contribution to the Scottish economy.
- Economic impact of SCIS schools is £668 million
- The sector supports 10,590 jobs
- International pupils generate £43million for the Scottish economy
- SCIS schools provide £65 million in financial assistance benefiting 6,865 pupils (26% of pupils in the sector)
You can access the full report here: Economic Impact of SCIS Schools in Scotland 2024-25
